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11:35 pm
May 7, 2011
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So when we watched Dial M for Mayor, we all assumed the pawn that Mr. Smith was talking about was Castle, but I think that's a misdirect. Here is some dialogue:
Smith: Trust me when I say, it's not your concern.
Castle: It is when it involves Beckett and her mother's murder.
Smith: Your a writer, finish this sentence: If Wheldon had been run out of office…
Castle: I'd be gone from the 12th precinct.
Smith: And then who would keep Beckett from looking into things she shouldn't. Who would keep her out of harms way?
Castle: You did this to protect her? Why?
Smith: You play chess Mr. Castle? There are times when a well placed pawn is more powerful than a king.
Couple that with the conspiracy against the Mayor and The Captain's reaction to Beckett when she at the murder board at the end of the episode and it looks to me like the gang is caught between two opposing forces that are dueling it out for power and control. One side is headed by the dragon or even someone higher than that, while the other side is headed by Mr. Smith or someone else more powerful for whom he is a foot-soldier. And because of that ending in Dial M, I would think that the Captain is in on it, probably on the good side, and is working her end at the precinct.
Look at those last two lines, they did this to protect Beckett. But why? Why is Beckett so important that she needs to be kept alive? And why is this 'good' side doing things that might implicate them just so that Castle can remain in place protecting her? That makes me wonder: what if Castle isn't the pawn here? What if Beckett is the pawn, and having Castle there is just a misdirect?
So here is a theory: there is a war going on behind the scenes between the two factions, and up until this point, the 'good' side headed by Mr. Smith is losing. When Kate decided to get back into her mother's case in Sucker Punch, she unwittingly threw up a barrier, something that could stop the 'bad' side from advancing any further because of the threat she posed to their operations. I bet all the money I have that after the incident with Coonan was when the deal with Montgomery was put into effect, he would watch her and make sure she couldn't get any further in the investigation. When Knockdown rolls around, the war between the good side and the bad side has come to a very unsteady cease-fire, with both sides realizing that neither could really proceed. When Raglan decided to go to Beckett, the bad side saw an opportunity to get further along, so they gave Lockwood a mission, and after he found out everything he needed, he was to kill Kate, the deal would be off and they would strike again. Only he failed…
So the cease fire remained in effect. Here comes Knockout, and the bad side is ready to spring Lockwood and have him continue the mission. Only this time, Roy sacrifices himself and kills Lockwood, but that also means that no one can keep Beckett from investigating, and now they are really scared because the cops know a TON. So they go after Beckett at Roy's funeral, only to have Smith step in and make the same deal after she survives. Jump ahead to Dial M, and this is the bad sides attempt to make the deal hokey once more. And this time, they get to take out one of the good sides foot-soldiers, The Mayor. He knew about the conspiracy, he knew what was going on, and he knew that this was the bad sides attempt to keep him from a greater position.
And that's when I asked myself, why him? Why couldn't he be Governor of New York? Why couldn't he one day be president? That's simple: he is a foot soldier for the good side, their attempt to get people into higher office in order to better fight the bad side. For if he is the part of the good side, then when he becomes the Governor or the President, he can help the good side to maybe even take down the bad side. That has to be stopped, and in the process, if they can get to Kate in the process, then that's even better.
Kate is the pawn, the thing that is keeping these two warring factions from getting closer to war, she is in the middle of this and is the reason that the bad side hasn't been able to advance. That's why she is so important too, she needs to be alive, the threat of her finding the connections and unearthing the war that is on-going is keeping the bad side at bay.
For now. But if she was gone, the threat wouldn't exist, and the bad side could do what they want. It's just like two warring gangs or even warring families, and the gang and Beckett are caught in the middle. I think you only have two choices when you are caught in the middle: You either back off completely, though I would imagine that is impossible now, or you can join the good side and try to take down the bad side. So I think that’s how this has to end. They join with Mr. Smith and his side to take down the other warring family.
Btw, does that sound familiar? Two warring families with two lovers caught in the middle? It’s a retelling of Romeo and Juliet, and though I am loathe to admit that (because you have no idea how much I can’t stand that story), that’s exactly what this is.
And here is the weirder part, if it is Romeo and Juliet, then I think that says that Castle’s dad is on the bad side and Jim Beckett is on the good side. Which would explain exactly why Kate must be protected, she is her father's daughter and if he is part of the good side, then it would benefit them to protect her. Couple that with the threat she poses and how Jim got her to back off, and I think these are compelling reasons.
Alright, that's enough rambling, feel free to tear it apart!
12:26 am
April 3, 2010
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Great thoughts, jerryst316
The only thing I don't think is necessary is for Mayor Weldon to be aware of the larger conspiracy. The dark side wanted him to play ball for them, and he refused, so they tried to take him out of the game. He survived, but will progress no further because of them. There is no need for him to be aware of anything outside of that.
Romeo & Juliet? They had knowledge of their families' feud, and decided they didn't want to participate. Rick & Kate are not in the same position. And I don't see them coming to the same end, either.
1:02 am
April 20, 2011
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Actually, I'm with you on most of this. I've been under the impression that Castle's dad would end up being on the wrong side of the law since he was first brought up. Martha's reluctance to tell Castle about him only bolsters this line of thinking. Also, I can foresee a confrontation with him in the future in which Castle has no idea who he is dealing with (Greek tragedy kinda stuff) until after the fact.
Concerning the chess analogies, Kate is definitely a piece on the board… don't know if she'd be considered just a pawn though. Either way, Castle does seem to be a pawn placed to defend her. So, I guess the reference could be about either of them.
It would make sense that Kate's dad was working, or at least talking, with his wife on the case that got her killed. I'm thinking he knows more about it than he lets on. Maybe that's part of what led to his drinking problem? He knows, but can't do anything about it (out of concern for his and his daughter's safety)?
And, just to throw gas on the fire…consider these alternatives:
1) Mr. Smith turns out to be Castle's father.
2) Beckett's dad was working for the bad guy's…tried to leave…and they killed his wife.
3) Iron Gates is on the other side…which is why she wants to get rid of Castle so badly.
So many conspiracy theories…so little time! 
2:37 am
April 29, 2008
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I haven't read the whole post or the responses but wanted to say I always thought he meant Beckett was the pawn and that Smith believes tht one day it'll be her that takes out the king
5:09 am
December 3, 2009
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Interesting theory, jerryst316. Do I understand it correctly, though, that the inciting incident (like Castle described in 'Dial M'
in your scenario is when Beckett decided to investigate her mom's case again in "Sucker Punch"?
Because, for me, it would be when Johanna Beckett herself decided to investigate Bob Armen's murder in the alley. He was a federal officer working undercover inside the mob to which Pulgatti belongs. Although, McAllister did tell Kate in "Knockdown" that she "woke the Dragon" when she shot Coonan, so…
(I need to gather my thoughts and notes on this case…)
Carry on. 
6:04 am
January 29, 2012
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unfortunetly i don't undertsand all the things you said. I'm disappointed because i'm very interested in these theories.
Icons by SKB
7:34 am
April 19, 2011
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Great thoughts jerryst316 !!
I agree with you in that I also think that Beckett is the well-placed pawn and that Castle is her protector. And, although, it did not think so when I saw the eppy,I could see how Gates could have a position in the "good side". That makes sense, especially since she comes from IA and appears to take an interest in Kate. Make total sense to me.
You lost me on the mayor. It was my impression that Smith only got involved to keep Castle where he is, at the precinct watching over Kate. I don't think he was interested in the mayor's career at all. He realized that once the mayor lost his job, so would Castle (most likely) and Kate would be left on her own. Since she is the pawn (IMO) he needs to maintain Castle near her.
Your comment about Suckerpunch made me think. I'd always assumed that Montgomery's deal with the dragon about Kate's safety had been done earlier than that. I don't have hard evidence, it's just that Lockwood said "she was part of the package" or something to that effect. I would have thought that Montgomery would have made that deal with him as soon as she was under his wings as a detective but before Suckerpunch. But I could be wrong and Suckerpunch was the trigger to set things in motion, put up a wall, as you said. The dragon contacted Montgomery and pressured him. Montgomery pulls out those files and makes a deal that includes his family and Kate. Makes sense!
10:52 am
May 7, 2011
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little eve said:
Great thoughts jerryst316 !!
I agree with you in that I also think that Beckett is the well-placed pawn and that Castle is her protector. And, although, it did not think so when I saw the eppy,I could see how Gates could have a position in the "good side". That makes sense, especially since she comes from IA and appears to take an interest in Kate. Make total sense to me.
You lost me on the mayor. It was my impression that Smith only got involved to keep Castle where he is, at the precinct watching over Kate. I don't think he was interested in the mayor's career at all. He realized that once the mayor lost his job, so would Castle (most likely) and Kate would be left on her own. Since she is the pawn (IMO) he needs to maintain Castle near her.
Your comment about Suckerpunch made me think. I'd always assumed that Montgomery's deal with the dragon about Kate's safety had been done earlier than that. I don't have hard evidence, it's just that Lockwood said "she was part of the package" or something to that effect. I would have thought that Montgomery would have made that deal with him as soon as she was under his wings as a detective but before Suckerpunch. But I could be wrong and Suckerpunch was the trigger to set things in motion, put up a wall, as you said. The dragon contacted Montgomery and pressured him. Montgomery pulls out those files and makes a deal that includes his family and Kate. Makes sense!
My impression of the Mayor in Dial M is pretty much the same as yours, I think, but with the added thought that he could be part of the conspiracy and working with one of the warring factions to bring down the other. My thought is simply that Mr. Smith realized he couldn't save The Mayor from being dragged down, but at least, he could keep him out of jail to maintain the deal. It's just far too coincidental that the Mayor knew there was a conspiracy to bring him down, and he was exactly right about that. That to me, means that he is on the inside, and that's part of why he accepted being the best Mayor he could in the end.
I thought about Johanna's investigation for a while too, but I think that's just a part of the on-going war. An unintended casualty. IMO, it never seemed like Montgomery had the deal in place in Sucker Punch, especially given that he basically pushed Kate into trying to solve the case. When Knockdown comes around, the first thing he does, antithetically to Sucker Punch, is try to kick her off the case and then eventually does. It could just be that he started to worry about her because of the sniper, but something had to have changed between Sucker Punch and Knockdown for his first to be "why shouldn't I kick you off this case" instead of "I always thought you would pick this up again".
Romeo & Juliet? They had knowledge of their families' feud, and decided they didn't want to participate. Rick & Kate are not in the same position. And I don't see them coming to the same end, either.
HTT's, yeah I don't think it's a perfect fit mind you, but it does work on many levels. Of course, we all hope they don't come to the same end too, but maybe that knowledge will be part of Castle's secret. The story is still being told at this point.
Interesting theory, jerryst316. Do I understand it correctly, though, that the inciting incident (like Castle described in 'Dial M') in your scenario is when Beckett decided to investigate her mom's case again in "Sucker Punch"?
Yeah, it would almost have to be. Like I said, I think Johanna was simply an unintended casualty, so when Beckett picks up the case in Sucker Punch, she is the thing that stands in the middle. She is a new threat that the bad side can't kill this time (unlike Johanna), so instead of continuing the war, they have to call a cease-fire. My proof would be the waking the dragon part and the part with Raglan before he is shot in Knockdown. He tells Kate that people noticed when she shot Coonan, that people were watching, and that that moment led to what was going to happen in the last half of season 3. Which tells me that Sucker Punch has to be where it all began for the Kate and the gang.
ETA: I do like the idea that Castle's dad in part of the conspiracy, and that Jim Beckett is on the good side, it would be interesting to see how something like that might play. If they are going for a re-imagining of Romeo and Juliet, where the characters don't die like HTT points out, then it would be interesting to see how that could play. Plus, we know that we are going to get some info on Castle's dad later this season, and wouldn't it just be a coincidence if Mr. Smith appeared in that episode too. I find that highly suspect…
12:10 pm
June 21, 2011
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jerry I really liked your take on JB conspiracy and I think you might be on so something, but I also agree with the parts HTT pulled out for consideration, as well as, what happened to R/J at the end of the story. I don't think that will be happening with C/B…..at least I really hope not.
But then again, isn't that what TV is all about, putting things such as R/J on it's head, doing a bit of tweaking and changing the ending. AM, did say the long arc of this story was a love story between C/B, but exactly which Shakespear story he may be remodeling, I think is yet to be determined, (IF AM is actually using the bard as a guide) R/J sorta fits, as you so aptly layed out for us.
Also, Beckett being the pawn Mr Smith was inferring, instead of Castle, I had not considered.
12:16 pm
February 25, 2012
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Hi, New forum member here. sorry for Necroposting, this topic caught my interest.
I think there is no need to over complicate things when it comes to theory.
Both Kate and Castle are pawns in this game. It simply refers to both of them being minor players in a much larger game. The King is potentially a Senator since Smith called the Congressional Offices in Rise. As such this Dragon could be considered a king, he doesn't move much and has other players move for him. Like Hal Lockwood.
The point of Smith's words is that when placed properly, even a pawn can handle a king. This is a common move in chess. If you check the opponents king with a pawn, it's likely to get killed but if you have another piece that would check the king if the pawn were taken, it becomes "insured" so to speak. The king cannot make a move that would result in the kings death. The evidence that Roy sent to Smith is exactly that, insurance to protect Kate. It put the Dragon in a stalemate, he cannot kill Becket as it would result in Smith revealing the files. It has nothing to do with her being important in some secret plot, it has to do with Roy wanting to protect her from his mistake and Smith owing him his life.
12:02 am
January 16, 2012
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I will be the first to admit that this is all way beyond me. Keep on plugging away though! But some food for thought:
1. As to "If Wheldon had been run out of office…", remember the words "term limited". I don't know how long or how many terms a NYC mayor could serve but there is a limit. So Wheldon could have lost a re-election, goes to Congress/Senate, get impeached or couldn't run again in the foreseeable future which means he wouldn't be able to keep Castle in the 12th anyway.
For the bad guys, who have no qualms about jail breaks, killing FBI agents, DOC officers, legal aid workers, cops, ex-cops, why take the risk on Wheldon being in office all to keep Beckett at bay? Wouldn't a safer bet be to pay off or kill Gates and ensure the next Captain in charge of Beckett keeps her off the case? Or have they?
2. Montgomery was a dirty cop with something to hide, so he couldn't release what damaging info he had in the safe (which he mailed out to Smith) without turning himself in the process. So he used the info as an insurance policy for himself, his family and later Beckett right?
So what's Smith's excuse for not going public with the info? Unless he also sinned spectacularly, then Smith would be a more dangerous adversary than Montgomery because he has no incentive not to hold back the info. So release the info, bad guys go to jail, everyone including Beckett stops being a target.
So Smith must be dirty too and can't do it without exposing himself or he's blackmailing the Bad Guys for something else and Beckett is just part of the deal.
3. After some dozen dead people, why is Joe Pulgatti still alive? Why is the Mayor's aide still alive?
4. I see an Castle's Eleven episode to close this case. Espo(1) and Ryan(2) follow Smith home after Castle(3) has another meeting with him. Martha(4) helps convinces the "grey panther" Powell (5) and newly licensed locksmith Jessup (6) to break into Smith's home and steal the file for Castle. Castle takes the file to his poker buddies (7, 8 & 9) to hatch a plot to take down the Bad Guys. Beckett (10) creates a diversion to draw away the bad guy's attention. The bad guys fall into Castle's trap. Gates (11) arrests them all. Yippee
8:08 am
March 1, 2011
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BeckiesChoice said
1. As to "If Wheldon had been run out of office…", remember the words "term limited". I don't know how long or how many terms a NYC mayor could serve but there is a limit. So Wheldon could have lost a re-election, goes to Congress/Senate, get impeached or couldn't run again in the foreseeable future which means he wouldn't be able to keep Castle in the 12th anyway.
two, four year terms
5:42 pm
February 25, 2012
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I thought it got changed to 3 four year terms in 2008. so in year terms, he could be mayor for 12 years.
Also, Killing Wheldon is not much of an option. A person of that high standing, getting killed would cost SOOOO much money and effort to cover up. It would make headlines the world over. The Dragon's group are still having trouble completely tying off loose ends in the Pulgatti/ JB fiasco and that's how old now? 19 years? Besides, Wheldon being a target had nothing to do with Kate. It's because he was aiming for governor. Which evidently is a position they have their eyes on, or already possess and would like to keep. So the simplest method to get rid of him is to destroy his public image, even crime just in his group is enough to sway public opinion. So with a murdering corrupt aide, he's already racked up negative public points. Yes, he's still mayor but on a larger scale he'd have to make up for that handicap in a race that is very unforgiving.
Joe Pulgatti is alive because there isn't any particular need to kill him. He didn't even know the identity of the three cops that framed him. Even if that changed with Raglan and McCalister being found out, they're dead along with Roy so the trail ends their. He just doesn't know enough to be a threat, and since he's in prison and has mob connections, his claim of innocence after pleading guilty to avoid death is unlikely to convince 99% of people apart from Kate and Castle. As for the mayor's aide, I actually wouldn't be surprised if he's already dead, not that they'd let his body surface or anything.
Smith's excuse for not taking the files public could be that although it could hurt the Dragon, it probably isn't enough to make any legal case against him. And even if it were, he's not the kind of villain that needs to lift a finger to kill people. He could get Kate killed just as easily from prison. So the insurance only works because the Dragon likes his current state of being. Maybe he's a public figure and doesn't want a scandal. There could be a number of reasons. Also, Smith is the most interesting recent character. He not only has nerves of steel while dealing with this dynamite like information but he didn't even seem to use a voice scrambler while calling, the Dragon? or whatever link he has in the Congressional offices.
Jessup lol.. Nice touch. Unfortunately only Castle knows about Smith and there is no guarantee that the files are in his office or home.
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