While, ABC hasn't quite released their fall schedule yet, we can attempt to predict when Castle will premiere. We know that Castle will be staying in the same time slot and, based on past seasons, can guarantee that it will not premiere till at least mid-September. While, that might not be a lot of information by looking at the schedules of the Bachelor Pad and Dancing With the Stars you can predict Castle's premiere date.
Let's first look at the Bachelor Pad. I know many of you might not be a fan but this is the show that plays the greatest importance. The Bachelor Pad generally starts up after the Bachelorette ends or starts to wind down. In fact, this year, the Bachelor Pad starts up on the twenty-third of July and will be in the Bachelorette's current timeslot. There are only about three episodes of the Bachelorette left this season. So, unless there is a hiatus before the finale, the Bachelorette finale will be on July 23rd. So this means that it will be in a new timeslot, most likely it'll move to 10pm. Now,according to IMDb, both of these shows have many crew members and a host in common. So, they probably try to start the Bachelor Pad as late as possible but yet early enough to be done by fall. For those of you who are not familiar with the Bachelor Pad, it's set up with contestants that need to be eliminated but it's also reality tv. According to ABC, there are twenty contestants this season, with a pair of twins competing as one person, and two are kicked off each week. This means that the Bachelor Pad has to last at least ten weeks, which puts us at September 24th. This is different from previous years when the Bachelor Pad was only six weeks and was over a week before we premiered.
The other show that will play a role into this is Dancing With the Stars. Dancing with the Stars has two seasons each year, one in the fall and one in the spring. There are twelve couples and ten rounds. It runs on two nights, however the only one that matters to us is competition night, which is Monday night. The Monday night show is two hours long. I predict the Dancing With the Stars premiere date to fall on either the 17th or the 24th. This prediction can be narrowed down further to the 17th after counting the ten weeks and finding that if they start of the 24th, the finale would be the day after Christmas.
So finally we come to my prediction for the Castle premiere date. For the past two years, Castle and Dancing with the Stars have had the same premiere date, a week after the Bachelor Pad ends. However, in those same two years, the Bachelor Pad has lasted only six weeks. This year with its predicted end date of September 24th, I don't believe that Dancing with the Stars will premiere when we do. My theory, assuming the previous premiere date for Dancing with the Stars is correct, is that the final two episodes of the Bachelor Pad will be shown in our time slot with the lead in show of Dancing With the Stars. However,even if the previous date is incorrect and it's the 24th, the Bachelor Pad will still need to be shown in our timeslot for at least one week. Thus putting our premiere date at October 1st. I feel that this is the most likely option since there will only be two episodes of the Bachelor Pad left.
However, if ABC decides to keep the Castle premiere date on the same day as the Dancing with the Stars premiere, then we will likely have the premiere on the 17th followed by a two week hiatus, or on the 24th, followed by a one week hiatus. I, personally, believe that the chances of this are very low because we've never had the premiere followed by any form of hiatus. However this could be the first year for that because I don't believe that with only one or two episodes left, ABC would give the Bachelor Pad more than a one week hiatus.
In short, I predict that our premiere date will be October 1st. In fact, I feel so certain about this that I'm willing to bet on it. So, if I'm wrong, I will make a video of myself doing something that you all choose. There will be more on this over at my twitter and tumblr once the official schedule comes out. If you have any questions, or would like to debate me on this topic, please feel free to tweet me or pop into the chatroom.
Soiurces: IMDb.com, TV Guide , ABC.com